Makakilo, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

214
FXHW60 PHFO 141311
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
311 AM HST Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy trades will continue to produce showers across windward
and mauka areas through the week. A developing low aloft could
increase showers this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite and radar imagery shows scattered clouds and showers
embedded within the trade winds, favoring primarily windward and
mauka areas.

Little change is expected over the next few days. The Northeast
Pacific High is expected to weaken and be pushed southward by a
series of lows near the Aleutians. This will result in continued
breezy trades across the islands through at least Thursday
afternoon. Showers embedded within the trades will favor windward
and mauka locations, especially during the overnight and early
morning hours each day. Some isolated spillover to leeward areas
is expected.

Thursday evening through the weekend the subtropical jet thats
south of the islands will weaken and move to the east. A new upper
level low develops just southwest of the island chain. This low
is expected to move over the islands this weekend and both linger
and weaken overhead. It is possible that shower activity could
increase, including across some leeward areas as well.

Early next week, the aforementioned low aloft is forecast to
weaken as ridging builds back into the region. This could bring
some unsettled weather embedded within the general trade wind
regime.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue with periods of
showers in the forecast favoring windward and mountain areas in
the overnight to early morning hours. Satellite and radar imagery
show a band of clouds and showers riding into the islands on the
trade winds will an increase in morning shower activity along with
brief MVFR conditions mainly affecting windward airfields.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for N thru E sections of
the islands of Oahu through the Big Island.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb blw 070 S thru W of island
terrain.

&&

.MARINE...

A strong high will remain far northeast of the state through the
week and continue to bring fresh to locally strong trade winds to
all local waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the windier
waters around Maui County and the Big Island has been extended
through Thursday. Winds may ease slightly and veer toward the
east- southeast over the weekend due to a weak front far northwest
of the state.

The current moderate period south-southwest swell will slowly
decline through today as mainly background energy is expected
along south facing shores through Thursday. A tiny long-period
south- southwest is possible this weekend, but otherwise mainly
background energy is expected into the middle of next week.

Surf along east-facing shores will be rough and choppy the next
several days due to the fresh to locally strong trades. Surf along
north facing shores will remain small with some background
northwest energy moving through throughout the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Walsh
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Shigesato